Scenarios are stories of possible futures told to inform current
decision-making. There are many kinds of scenario exercises, but in
general, all scenarios:
- Organize statements about the future.
- Are useful when future developments are both important and uncertain.
- Connect descriptions of the future to the present through a series
of causal links.
- Are (or should be) plausible, internally consistent, and
interesting to their target audience.
Scenarios generally have a qualitative component - the narrative -
and a quantitative component - the numbers that illustrate and
support the story. Different scenario analyses will require different balances
between narrative and number.