Peter Schwartz, the president of the Global Business Network, is a pioneer
in the field of scenario development. Many people first learned about scenarios
and their uses from his famous book, The Art of the Long View[1].
Below, the main points from the Appendix “Steps to Developing
Scenarios ” to The Art of the Long View
are summarized. Needless to say, such a short summary does not do the book justice.
The summary can get you started, but if you are
serious about scenario development, then you should have the book on your
bookshelf.
Actors
Unspecified/flexible.
Procedure
Identify the focal issue or decision. Begin with a specific decision or issue,
then build out to the broader environment. A good starting point is to ask, “What is it that keeps
me awake at night?”
Identify key forces in the local environment.
List the driving forces. You can start with a checklist of social, economic, political, environmental,
and technological forces. Alternatively, ask, “What are the macro-environmental forces
behind the micro-environmental forces listed in Step 2?” This is the most
research-intensive step. Search for major trends and trend breaks.
Rank key factors & driving forces by importance and uncertainty. Identify two or
three that are both most important and most uncertain.
Select scenario logics. The results of this exercise are, in effect, the
axes along which the eventual scenarios will differ. Avoid a proliferation of scenarios -
choose only a few “scenario drivers.” Note that the final narrative
will usually be more subtle than the simple logics would suggest.
Flesh out the scenarios. The logics give the skeleton of the scenarios. Now add
the “flesh” by returning to the key factors and trends listed in Steps 2 and 3.
Each key factor and trend should be given some attention in each scenario.
Explore implications. Return to the focal issue or decision in Step 1. How
does it look in each scenario? What vulnerabilities have been revealed? Is
the strategy robust across all scenarios? How could it be adapted to make it
more robust?
Select leading indicators and signposts. As time unfolds, you will want to know
which scenario is closest to the course of history, and the indicators and
signposts will help you decide.
Additional Considerations
Beware of ending up with three scenarios. People are tempted to identify one
of them as the “middle” or “most likely.” But also avoid
having too many scenarios.
Avoid assigning probabilities to scenarios. However, it may make sense to make two reasonably
likely scenarios and compare them to two “wild card” scenarios.
Pay a great deal of attention to naming your scenarios. Successful names telegraph
the scenario logics.
Pick your scenario team based on these considerations: 1) support and
participation from the highest levels is essential; 2) a broad range of functions
and divisions should be represented; 3) look for imaginative people with open minds
who can work well together as a team.
You can tell you have good scenarios when they are both plausible and surprising;
when they have the power to break old stereotypes; and when the makers assume ownership
of them and put them to work. Scenario making is intensely participatory, or it fails.
References
[1] Schwartz, Peter. 1996. The Art of the Long View: Planning
for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Currency Doubleday.