This approach is flexible and adaptable, intended to spark and then sustain debate.
It is a very pragmatic approach, taking as a starting point
the observation that the desired data are never available, but
that the issues are pressing and analysis must proceed. It then goes on to point out
that a great deal can be learned from the existing data, so it is worthwhile to start
the process.
Another pragmatic feature of this approach is that scenario narratives are created
by a stakeholder group and the client in reaction to a provisional scenario proposed
by a scenario team. This follows from the common experience that people who are not
scenario experts have difficulty talking about the future “in a vacuum,” but
can easily discuss the future if a concrete example is in front of them.
Note that there is no official presentation of this approach. It is based
on presentations by representatives of the Global Scenario Group
and of the PoleStar Project.
Actors
The client requesting the analysis (who also provides most data)
Stakeholders convened periodically by the client
A scenario team that coordinates the exercise and (usually) carries out the analysis
(and who also provide “off-the-shelf” data)
Procedure
In consultation with the scenario team, the client specifies the boundaries of
the analysis and provides an initial list of indicators the analysis should produce.
In consultation with the client, the scenario team proposes a list of data requirements.
The client provides a list of resources that the scenario team should take into
account in its initial analysis.
The scenario team generates a “zero-order” scenario with its associated
indicators and storyline.
The stakeholder group and the client discuss the initial scenario, proposing
modifications and extensions and identifying data gaps.
The scenario group refines the analysis, taking the comments of the stakeholder group
and the client into account.
Steps 5 and 6 are repeated until an acceptable set of scenarios is achieved. These generally
include one or two forecasts and one or two backcasts.
The draft scenarios are distributed for general review.
The scenario team and client revise the scenarios based on results of the
general review (perhaps with the further contribution from the stakeholder group).
The final scenarios are published and distributed.