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The Prospective Process (la Prospective)

First developed by Bertrand de Jouvenel in the 1970s, the procedure given here is a summary of the description in Hugues de Jouvenel’s 2000 article [1]. This article was part of a special issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change devoted to scenarios.

Unlike most of the other procedures in this collection, Hugues de Jouvenel did not give a short summary of the procedure. As a consequence, in addition to the basic steps, there are several Notes that give advice, warnings, etc. that appeared in reference [1].

Actors

Unspecified/flexible

Procedure

  1. Define the problem and choose the time horizon
  2. Build the system and identify key variables
  3. Collect the data and draft the hypotheses
  4. Develop scenarios
  5. Develop strategic choices, based on the insights given by the scenario exercise.

References

[1] de Jouvenel, Hugues. 2000. “A Brief Methodological Guide to Scenario Building,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65, 37-48.