Recipes & Guidelines

Documents from Scenarios for Sustainability

Scenarios for Sustainability develops procedures and handouts for carrying out the different tasks of a scenario analysis. You may use these documents for your own activities, and you may distribute them in workshops. All of these handouts and presentations are released under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. Under this license, you may modify and distribute these documents at no charge, with certain restrictions.

ProceduresPDF formatOpenOffice.orgMicrosoft Office*Supporting Software**
Classifying a Scenario Exercise pdf odt MS Word
Identifying Driving Forces pdf odt MS Word software
Timeline pdf odt MS Word
Making a Narrative “Skeleton” pdf odt MS Word software
HandoutsPDF formatOpenOffice.orgMicrosoft Office*
Scenario Boundaries pdf sxi MS Word
Indicators by Theme pdf sxi MS Word

*Microsoft Office files are exported from, and may not look exactly the same.

**For most activities, supporting software is recommended, not required. In most cases software is hosted on a different site.

Other Procedures, Recipes & Guidelines

We have also collected procedures for creating scenarios from various sources. Where appropriate, the original sources are cited. Also, wherever possible, the wording in the original source is reproduced verbatim. We recommend looking at several of these to get insight before deciding on what combination of features is best for your study. Each procedure has valuable insights, and nobody has yet discovered the perfect formula.

Common Features

Nearly all of the procedures share a set of common features. Sometimes these are mentioned explicitly. Other times they are implicit. Keep these features in mind as you look at the different approaches.

  • Boundaries of the analysis, defined over time, in space, and thematically
  • One or more storylines
  • A set of indicators, usually quantitative but sometimes qualitative
  • Driving forces, which may be quantitative or qualitative

List of Procedures, Recipes & Guidelines

A good resource on scenario philosophy and methodology is the recent Royal Dutch Shell book Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide, which is available online. Shell has been a leader in scenario planning for several decades.