Scenarios for Sustainability develops procedures and handouts for carrying out the
different tasks of a scenario analysis. You may use these documents for your own activities,
and you may distribute them in workshops.
All of these handouts and presentations are released under the
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. Under this license,
you may modify and distribute these documents at no charge, with certain restrictions.
*Microsoft Office files are exported from OpenOffice.org, and may not look exactly the same. **For most activities, supporting software is recommended, not required. In most cases software is hosted on a different site.
Other Procedures, Recipes & Guidelines
We have also collected procedures for creating scenarios from various sources.
Where appropriate, the original sources are cited. Also, wherever possible,
the wording in the original source is reproduced verbatim. We recommend looking
at several of these to get insight before deciding
on what combination of features is best for your study. Each procedure has valuable
insights, and nobody has yet discovered the perfect formula.
Nearly all of the procedures share a set of common features. Sometimes these
are mentioned explicitly. Other times they are implicit. Keep these features
in mind as you look at the different approaches.
Boundaries of the analysis, defined over time, in space, and thematically
One or more storylines
A set of indicators, usually quantitative but sometimes qualitative
Driving forces, which may be quantitative or qualitative
List of Procedures, Recipes & Guidelines
A good resource on scenario philosophy and methodology is the recent
Royal Dutch Shell book Scenarios: An Explorers Guide, which
is available online. Shell has been a leader in scenario planning for several decades.